TL;DR
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What you missed between now and Dec 22 of last year.
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The 2023 P&L for three key cryptocurrencies.
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Some predictions on where we are headed.
Full Story
We’re back baaaaby!
Hope you all enjoyed your respective breaks.
We spent our holidays trying to find moments of peace and stillness in between our feverish (borderline obsessive) refreshing of CoinMarketCap’s home page – cause, ICYMI:
Santa came through for crypto holders this year!
Which means there’s a lot to talk about – and with that in mind…
Instead of our usual 3 article format, today we’re serving up a rapid fire summary of all the price action you’ve missed over the holiday break, 2023’s profit/loss report, and what lies ahead in 2024.
Starting with price action.
Here’s what you missed between now and Dec 22 of last year:
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Bitcoin went from $43.3k, peaked at $45.9k, and is at $45.3k at the time of this writing.
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Ethereum went from $2.24k, peaked at $2.44k, and is at $2.36k at the time of this writing.
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Solana went from $93.1, peaked at $125.1, and is at $110 at the time of this writing.
Which is neat and all – but it gets really exciting when you look back at the profit/loss report of each coin/token, on a yearly time frame…
Here’s the 2023 P&L for each of the above cryptocurrencies:
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Bitcoin pulled a 2.25x (going from a low of $19.6k, to a high of $44.1k)
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Ethereum 1.78x (going from a low of $1.37k, to a high of $2.44k)
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Solana pulled a *wait for it* 9.35x (going from a low of $13.37, to a high of $125.1)
Even Ethereum’s “sluggish” 78% growth in 2023 is impressive, given that most of the financial world was convinced we were going to see a global recession in ’23.
Right. So that’s where we’ve been. Now – where’re we headed?
We’d define the overall market sentiment as “short term bullish, mid term bearish, long term bullish.”
A “bearish sandwich,” if you will.
Here’s how that’s being figured:
In the short term…
A spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to be approved in the US between now and Jan 10.
An ETF would allow BTC to be traded via the stock market and attract all sorts of new investment dollars (increasing demand for Bitcoin, while lowering its supply).
Here’s our patented ‘Low IQ Math’ on that:
ETF = probably good for BTC’s price.
In the medium term…
Most analysts we follow are still expecting a recession to hit at some point (even the optimistic ones). If/when that happens, expect a broad crypto sell off.
Our Low IQ Math on that? Recession = bad.
In the long term…
Bitcoin tends to lead the crypto market – if BTC goes up, the rest of the market often follows.
And this year, there’s a spicy new ‘price go up’ cocktail being brewed for Bitcoin.
(One that could significantly increase Bitcoin’s scarcity and overall demand).
The recipe goes like this:
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In April, the Bitcoin halving is due – which means the amount of new BTC entering the market each day will be cut in half (lowering supply).
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Hopefully by that point there are multiple US-based spot BTC ETFs.
This will allow institutional asset managers, family offices, and retirement funds that only invest in US based equities (aka stocks), to allocate some of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
(Increasing demand, while lowering supply).
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The Federal Reserve plans to lower interest rates over 2024, which means everyone’s loan & credit repayments will cost less each month – giving folks more disposable income, some of which should flow into Bitcoin.
(Again, increasing demand, while lowering supply).
Here’s our Low IQ Math on that cocktail recipe:
Good news + bad news + good news = net good news for BTC (and the rest of the crypto market).
Alright, those are the highlights!
Tomorrow we’ll be back with our regularly scheduled 3 article programming.
