Brazil has blocked access to prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, escalating a regulatory crackdown on products officials say operate like illegal betting.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said Friday that telecom regulator Anatel shut down 27 prediction market platforms after the government concluded they breached betting rules approved by Congress. The sites of Kalshi and Polymarket were offline in Brazil by early Friday afternoon.
The move follows a new National Monetary Council rule limiting derivatives to economic and financial benchmarks such as price indexes, interest rates and exchange rates. Contracts tied to sports, online gaming, politics, elections, cultural events and social outcomes were excluded from the permitted derivatives framework.
Brazil’s Finance Ministry said in a technical note that prediction markets use binary event contracts where users take yes or no positions on future outcomes. The ministry said platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are among the best known examples globally and argued that their structure overlaps with fixed odds betting.
Economic reforms secretary Regis Dudena said prediction markets had been presented as financial products but resembled betting in practice, while presidential chief of staff Miriam Belchior said the government wanted to prevent an unregulated betting market from taking root.
The decision also sharpens Brazil’s position as global regulators wrestle with how to classify prediction markets. Brazil’s regulated online betting market launched in January 2025, but officials said current law only allows fixed odds betting tied to real world sports events and online games, leaving political, cultural and other event based markets outside the legal framework.
