The odds of the US passing its second major piece of crypto legislation have risen as prediction markets price growing momentum behind the Crypto CLARITY Act. Kalshi, the regulated prediction market platform, now prices the Crypto Clarity Act at a 69% chance of passing, while Polymarket sits in the same 69% range.
What the CLARITY Act actually does
The bill divides oversight responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, giving the SEC authority over securities and investment contracts while placing digital commodities under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.
It finally addresses the question that has haunted crypto projects since regulators started paying attention: when is a token a security, and when is it a commodity?
Under the proposed framework, certain digital assets could qualify as digital commodities if they meet the bill’s requirements, including standards tied to decentralization and market structure. That would give crypto exchanges, brokers, and dealers a clearer path to register with federal regulators instead of operating under the current patchwork of enforcement actions and legal uncertainty.
If enacted, the CLARITY Act would become the second major piece of US crypto legislation, following the stablecoin bill that cleared its own difficult path through Congress. Together, the two bills would mark Washington’s most serious attempt yet to build a comprehensive regulatory architecture for digital assets.
Why the odds surged
The Crypto Clarity Act had been stuck in legislative limbo since late 2025, bogged down by disputes over stablecoin yield provisions and bipartisan gridlock. The stablecoin yield question, specifically whether yield-bearing stablecoins should face securities-style regulation, had become the wedge issue that stalled progress for months.
Bitcoin’s price was sitting near $80K at press time, a figure that suggests the rising legislative odds are actively shaping crypto market dynamics.
What this means for investors
If major assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are formally treated as commodities, they would fall more clearly under the CFTC’s oversight rather than the SEC’s securities framework.
A 69% probability still leaves roughly a one in three chance that the bill does not pass. The stablecoin yield provisions that previously complicated negotiations could also resurface as a sticking point.
