Ranked fourth in the world in FIFA’s latest rankings after breezing through the European qualifiers without conceding a single goal, the Three Lions find themselves one of the favourites (only Spain and France command more favourable betting odds) to bring home the England’s first World Cup in 60 years, at this summer’s tournament, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Whether Thomas Tuchel’s squad can live up to those expectations will also have an indirect impact on consumer banking activity and fraud back home.
Nearly 1.5 billion viewers around the world tuned in to watch the 2022 World Cup final between Argentina and France, capping months of ticket purchasing, flight booking, hotel reservations, memorabilia buying, pub tabs, and sports betting.
The longer England remains in this summer’s tournament, the more we can expect consumer banking and spending behaviour in the country to change, and the more opportunities fraudsters will find to exploit those changes.
How Behaviour Reshapes Fraud Risk
In analysing digital banking activity during past football tournaments (and one U.S. Super Bowl), we’ve identified noticeable shifts in consumer behaviour; and in fraud.
During major matches, especially those involving the home team, digital banking activity declines, as fans and fraudsters alike shift their attention to the game. In the Euro 2024 final between England and Spain, we saw digital banking activity decrease significantly in both countries — in Spain by 32%, and in the UK, by 26%.
During the 2022 World Cup, there was a clear drop in the number of digital banking sessions among Argentinian and Brazilian fans during matches involving their teams, suggesting many were watching the game rather than logging into their banking apps.
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Fraud activity followed a similar pattern. On the day of the 2022 World Cup final, instances of fraud in football-mad Argentina decreased by 93%, presumably as consumers were too preoccupied to interact with fraudsters and because any football-fan fraudsters were also too busy watching the game to spend much time scamming consumers.
Similarly, over the course of the entire 2018 World Cup, Mexico saw an 87% decrease in cyber-attacks, while Brazil saw 21% fewer attacks.
UK banks actually saw a 24% increase in attacks during England’s 2018 World Cup matches, but those attacks declined during matches involving the Russian national team, suggesting a bulk of attacks targeting the UK originated with Russian cybercriminals.
Criminals who were active during matches also appeared to be more rushed. Just 35% of reported fraud sessions in the UK lasted more than 20 minutes during the day of the Euro 2024 final, down from 50% across the rest of the month, with 56% of fraud sessions lasting between just two and 10 minutes.
These behavioural shifts highlight how major sporting events can quickly reshape online activity patterns. For banks, this means normal patterns of activity may look very different during major games. Recognising these patterns is essential to spotting suspicious activity and potential fraud.
Matchday Activity Spikes
Both legitimate and criminal digital banking activity appear to drop during matches, spiking above normal activity levels in the minutes immediately before kick-off and following the final whistle.
Fans often engage in a surge of digital activity before kick-off or immediately after the game ends, primarily driven by betting. During Euro 2024 matches involving England and Scotland, banking sessions from devices with betting apps installed increased by 11% in the two hours leading up to kick-off.
On the day of the Euro final, activity rose 9% ahead of kick-off and again by 27% once the match had ended. Similarly, the Euro 2020 final, in which Italy beat England in a penalty shootout, saw digital banking activity surge by 56% after the game’s final whistle compared to the lowest point during the match, with additional increases during extra time, suggesting users were potentially cashing out or placing new bets.
A Broader Attack Surface
The scale of the 2026 World Cup will amplify these risks. More teams (48), more matches (104) and more host countries than ever before mean sustained spikes in spending across tickets, travel, merchandise and betting, often driven by urgency and limited availability. This creates ideal conditions for fraud.
Purchase scams, ticket scams and impersonation attacks are therefore likely to increase during the tournament. Fraudsters frequently exploit high demand and limited availability by creating fake ticket websites, fraudulent merchandise stores or phishing campaigns that appear to come from official partners. These scams rely on pushing customers to act quickly, with less scrutiny.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy will be awarded on 19 July at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Whether or not ‘it’s coming home’ remains to be seen, but despite England’s favourable odds, the safer money is on fraud continuing to shift in line with digital banking behaviours.
Recognising these patterns, particularly on mobile channels, will be critical to identifying risks early and protecting UK customers while they focus on what’s on the pitch.
