The muted response is the pattern now. When Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Brent crude jumped past $100 a barrel for the first time in four years and later peaked near $120, and bitcoin sold off sharply on each escalation.
Part of that is timing. Oil, equities and bonds are closed for the weekend, so bitcoin is the only large market open to price the strikes in real time, and it is treating them as close to a non-event.
The fuller cross-asset reaction, in crude especially, might not show until Monday. Roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil moves through Hormuz, and Brent had already carried a risk premium into the weekend after tanker traffic through the strait stayed below normal.
The real test comes Monday, however, if crude reopens with a sharp gap higher while bitcoin holds its ground. A calmer oil open would say the strait closure is being read as a threat Tehran has made and walked back before.
