The contracts traded just 1.6% apart on average when both markets were active, and traded near $92 and $94 most recently, translating to a more than 300% upside from the IPO price.
That fourfold premium also means Unitree could have a blockbuster debut and still leave leveraged bulls nursing steep losses.
“Unitree can open at twice its IPO price and still liquidate a third of long exposure,” Allium said.
An opening around $45, double the IPO price, would still be about 52% below the current perp price and could liquidate roughly 33% of long exposure, the analysts said. At the other extreme, a $128 opening price (nearly 6x from the IPO price) could liquidate an estimated 53% of the short positions, the report said. If shares open at around where the perps trade, nothing moves, and neither side is liquidated.
Positioning on Trade.xyz, the bigger market of the two, is almost evenly split, with $6.5 million long and $6.6 million short. However, smaller traders are more bearish: bets below $50,000 are 70% short by value.
“Any open away from today’s price forces one side of this market out,” Allium said.
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