Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has warned that the US may face a crisis more severe than a recession if President Donald Trump does not manage tariffs and broader economic policies with caution.
Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Dalio said the economy is at a critical juncture.
“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” he said. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
The billionaire hedge fund manager responded to a question about whether Trump’s return to aggressive tariffs could push the US economy into a downturn.
Dalio pointed to what he called a breakdown in the global monetary system and drew comparisons to the 1930s, a period marked by economic depression, rising nationalism and global instability.
“We are having profound changes in our domestic order and we’re having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s,” he said.
Tariff Escalation and Debt Exposure Leave US Economy Vulnerable, Dalio Cautions
He pointed to the convergence of high debt levels, geopolitical tensions and aggressive tariff use as destabilizing factors. In particular, Dalio has expressed concern over mounting US debt and the heavy exposure of foreign creditors, including China, to that debt.
Trump recently raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, citing concerns over unfair trade practices and lack of market reciprocity. A universal 10% baseline tariff on most foreign goods, excluding those from USMCA partners, took effect on April 5. Just days later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on elevated tariffs for most countries, except China, rolling them back to the 10 per cent rate to allow time for trade negotiations.
Dalio warned that the way these issues are handled could lead to outcomes far worse than a typical economic contraction. “How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession,” he said.
Investor Veteran Sees Echoes of 2008, But Warns Today’s Crisis May Run Deeper
He also cautioned that internal political conflict, weakening trust in money and rising international tensions could worsen the global fallout. “That is not the normal democracy as we know it,” he said, referring to political risks at home.
In recent commentary, Dalio said a systemic economic breakdown is already underway. He pointed to current market volatility as a clear warning sign.
Dalio, who correctly anticipated the 2008 financial crisis, has consistently advised investors to diversify away from debt-based assets. He has previously suggested gold and Bitcoin as potential hedges in a time of growing uncertainty and shifting global power dynamics.
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