Bitcoin has continued to struggle in establishing a firm bullish grip, making lower lows after failing to cross beyond the $80,000 to $82,000 level following 12 days of consolidation there.
Capital deleveraging coming to a pause offers a glimmer of hope, but demand has yet to catch up in any meaningful way.
Bitcoin’s eight-month deleveraging cycle slows
Bitcoin [BTC] has undergone an eight-month stretch of deleveraging, a process where traders reduce their leverage exposure to the asset.
This typically occurs during periods of high volatility and unpredictability as traders move to protect themselves from outsized losses. The process that began in October 2025 saw Open Interest drop massively from its peak levels.
Binance data now shows interest is returning. Starting in March, Open Interest climbed from $6.4 billion to $8.96 billion, a $2.56 billion addition that sits slightly above the 180-day moving average of $8.65 billion.
While this indicates traders are returning to the perpetual market and opening positions on both the long and short sides, it does not guarantee that a rally is imminent.
It shows only that volatility has reduced to a level where the market feels suitable for placing bets again.
Spot net inflow strongest over 30 days
One major factor still in play and central to determining whether Bitcoin rallies is Spot market activity.
Similar to the slowdown in perpetual deleveraging, buying activity in the Bitcoin Spot market has picked up over the past month.
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin spot net inflow over the past 30 days has been its strongest across the 30, 40, 50, and 60-day windows.
The 30-day net flow stands at negative $1.19 billion, meaning more Bitcoin has been withdrawn into private wallets than moved onto centralized exchanges, reflecting a long-term holding outlook from investors.
The 40, 50, and 60-day figures came in at negative $962 million, $780 million, and $1.12 billion respectively, all comparably lower.
A negative net flow signals that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin into private wallets rather than positioning to sell, and the larger this negative reading, the more pronounced the long-term holding behavior.
However, the percentage ratio of net inflow change to market capitalization remains minimal at -0.0080%, keeping this a mildly bullish signal rather than a full confirmation of recovery.
Apparent demand contracts fast
Apparent demand in the Bitcoin market over the past 30 days remains completely minimal.
CryptoQuant data shows that demand has contracted at a rate last seen on the 10th of January, meaning that purchasing power and genuine buying interest for Bitcoin remained low.
Until this demand begins to return in a measurable way, the recovery signals from deleveraging and spot inflows are unlikely to be enough to drive a sustained price move to the upside.
Final Summary
- Open Interest has climbed from $6.4 billion to $8.96 billion since March, signaling a return of perpetual market participants.
- Spot net inflow over the past 30 days stands at negative $1.19 billion, though the net inflow-to-market cap ratio of -0.0080% keeps the signal mildly bullish rather than conclusive.
