Is Bitcoin at a bullish STH-to-LTH transition?
According to Lookonchain data, the Royal Government of Bhutan has moved another 300 BTC worth $19.28 million, adding to its recent selling spree.
The timing couldn’t be worse, with BTC trying to break into the $65k-$70k range, which is a zone they haven’t been able to return to since losing it in late May. This suggests that this range has the potential to be a strong resistance.
On the contrary, when it comes to whales, the situation is completely different.
As we can see in the chart below, whales have bought $2.64 billion worth of BTC in the last two months. So, structurally speaking, this may indicate a bullish STH-to-LTH transition as BTC moves from short-term holders to long-term ones.
However, the significance extends beyond structure.
The logic is simple: Sure, the development suggests increased conviction from whales. This could be positive for Bitcoin, giving it a stronger base, especially with all the selling pressure building around resistance.
That said, this dynamic could also strengthen Bitcoin’s [BTC] technical credibility.
Despite the absence of ETF inflows, rising institutional selling, and heightened market FUD, BTC has been able to maintain a narrow range for the past two months, a pattern that aligns with the observed accumulation by whales.
That makes this accumulation look more “strategic” than random, a divergence that could prove important against the current macro backdrop and heading deeper into the Q3 setup.
Bitcoin whale accumulation raises fresh bear trap signals
The resilience of Bitcoin in the current market environment is difficult to ignore.
With yields on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.7% and those on the 30-year nearing 5.3%, the environment is hostile to risk assets. Meanwhile, the situation between Iran and the U.S. continues to be a source of concern for investors.
The result? A widening Bitcoin-Nasdaq divergence.
Interestingly, the bears’ activity in the equity market has increased, with the Nasdaq down almost 3% for the quarter. This places the Nasdaq well below Bitcoin, which has delivered a positive ROI of almost 9% for the same period.
This is an intriguing observation as it provides further validation for Bitcoin as a superior asset in a risky environment, able to withstand macro FUD that hurt traditional investments.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin whale accumulation takes on an even more bullish light, with BTC’s consolidation near $65k increasingly looking like strategic positioning. This is especially the case compared to the broader market, causing the BTC-Nasdaq gap to widen by the day.
This trend naturally puts Bitcoin shorts at risk, as an STH-to-LTH transfer is underway, which could very well be the setup for a significant bear trap to unfold underneath BTC’s accumulation. If this scenario plays out, liquidation of short positions would propel Bitcoin to $70k and higher by the end of Q3.
Final Summary
- Whale buying suggests BTC’s $65k consolidation could be a bear trap.
- BTC’s strength against the Nasdaq could set up a short squeeze toward $70k.
