Bitcoin [BTC] closed in the red for the third consecutive day, with its price sliding to $67,000 on the charts. So far, the fall in prices has been driven by both whales and retail traders.
However, this pattern could be changing soon as Bitcoin’s sentiment starts to flip gradually. For instance, Hyperliquid whales turned back to the net long after two weeks of shorting BTC. This was the first selling period for them since March.
In fact, the daily mean of net long and net short grew from -1700 BTC on 8th November to around 900 BTC at press time. This seemed to imply that whales have been buying the dip below $70,000.
During the rally, which started in August, these whales went long. They subsequently sold the top. However, that does not guarantee that they will be right again.
Retail investors are capitulating
On the other hand, retail traders have been showing signs of capitulation. In fact, BTC’s monthly change in Retail Investor Demand declined to around -10% after a sharp rise to over 17% as the price approached $80,000.
The same is the weakest reading since March. Back then too, Hyperliquid whales were net short on BTC.
This fall in participation by retailers, volumes below $10K, have been common during BTC’s correction.
When looking at historical patterns, it is clearly evident that when retailers capitulate, the prices tend to reverse. Thus, going against the crowd may help investors catch a move, either to the downside or the upside early enough.
Still, that does not mean that the contrarian signal always works. Even though it may be an ideal time to build positions.
Examining Bitcoin’s leverage flush
Moreover, Bitcoin‘s Open Interest (OI) on Binance fell to $8.30 billion from $9.60 billion in November alone. This was its lowest level since 18th August, when BTC exploded past $65,000.
The slide below $68,000 triggered more long liquidations after those on the previous day. Over the past 24 hours, $1 billion were wiped out in crypto, with longs accounting for $863.3 million against $144.2 million in shorts.
This action forced leveraged traders out as supported by the sharp decline in OI. So, if BTC price stabilizes while OI stays at these levels, it would mean a rebound will be driven more by spot demand than leverage.
Therefore, whale positioning and retail capitulation could be a signal for a sustainable BTC recovery.
However, it needs to be backed by capital inflows from the market in the form of ETFs and spot buying, among others.
Final Summary
- Hyperliquid whales flipped the net long for Bitcoin after two weeks of being short as retailers capitulated.
- Bitcoin’s fall to $67,000 drove more liquidations of $1 billion in the crypto market as leveraged traders were forced out.
