U.S. inflation in July was in line with expectations, leaving expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike broadly unchanged.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in July from the previous month, compared with economists’ forecast for a 0.1% increase and June’s 0.4% decline.
On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose 3.4%, in line with forecasts and slightly lower than June’s 3.5% reading.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month over month in July, compared with forecasts for a 0.2% increase and an unchanged reading in June. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 2.5% as expected by analysts and edging lower from June’s 2.6%.
Bitcoin fell from $64,400 to $64,080 in a knee-jerk reaction before stabilizing, still largely flat over 24 hours. Nasdaq 100 futures traded 0.7% higher.
Treasury yields remained under pressure, maintaining pre-CPI weakness. The two-year hovered at 4.19%, down 3.6 basis points on the day, and the 10-year yield stood at 4.66%, also down three basis points.
Already a key data point for markets, July’s CPI report took on added importance after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report showed that the economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July.
Market participants are now pricing in a 44% probability that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, down from 48% odds before the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A week ago, traders put a 54% chance for a September rate hike.
